Tennessee vs Arkansas 11/12/2011

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Arkansas is a heavy favorite winning 83% of simulations over Tennessee. Tyler Wilson is averaging 329 passing yards and 2.2 TDs per simulation and Dennis Johnson is projected for 90 rushing yards and a 61% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 17% of simulations where Tennessee wins, Justin Worley averages 1.71 TD passes vs 0.87 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.94 TDs to 1.23 interceptions. Tauren Poole averages 86 rushing yards and 0.93 rushing TDs when Tennessee wins and 73 yards and 0.52 TDs in losses. Arkansas has a 47% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 89% of the time.

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